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Title: Instability of Indian Agriculture in context of Climate Variability
Authors: Wasnik, Angha
Keywords: School of Habitat Studies
Jayaraman, T.
Issue Date: 2015
Publisher: TISS
Abstract: Instability in the Agriculture is caused due to climate variability and technology. Since weather plays an important role in maintaining the optimal range i.e. temperature and rainfall conditions for the growing crops, technology acts in a synthetic mode to sustain crop’s production. This paper emphasises on two important aspects, one is calculating the instability index and trends for all the major crops of all the districts and secondly, detecting if there is a relationship between temperature and yield variability in major Rabi crops . By focussing on these two aspects, using Karnataka state district level data of the area, production and temperature, we would see if there is a relationship between the changes in instability in different phases of Agriculture using the instability index of a particular set of crops, in different districts. This would give an overall analysis of a particular crop’s instability trend in different regions and usual trend within the regions of the different crops . In addition to this, by establishing a relationship between temperature and yield variability, we could see whether changes in temperature leads to changes in crop yields and whether does an increase in temperature leads to decrease in crop yields. Rice, Maize, Cotton, Safflower showed a decreased variability in their yield. Sunflower, Sugarcane and Wheat showed an increase in yield variability over the years. There were variations in the trend differing for different crops in different districts when analysed the instability trend. Trends were important when analysing the relationship between temperature and crop yields, coz the stable crops e.g. Safflower in this case, due to its general trend of having stable yields did not have much variation due to the increase in temperature, especially did not lead to decreased crop yields compared to the other Rabi crops who had decreased crop yields after a certain degree rise in temperature from the mean.
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