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Title: A 20-Year Income-Group Based Comparative Analysis On The Relationships Between Energy, Emissions And Economic Growth
Authors: Goel, Shria
Keywords: School of Habitat Studies
Tejal Kanitkar
Energy and Emissions
Energy and GDP
Issue Date: 2019
Abstract: Energy, emissions and economic growth are the three most important variables in the climate change mitigation discourse. For the world to reduce its emissions, while ensuring sustainable economic growth, it is important to study the links between i) Energy and Emissions ii) Energy and GDP and iii) Emissions and GDP, while also evaluating the mitigation efforts made by countries in the 20-year period since the adoption of UNFCCC in 1992 using each of the above as an indicator to operationalize their mitigation effort. An important component of this research is in studying the above-mentioned pairs by classifying countries into income groups, making it easier to discern if the mitigation action taken by countries has been in line with UNFCCC’s principle of ‘Common But Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities’, while also studying the income groups by excluding certain ‘outlier’ countries experiencing relatively higher economic growth, energy consumption and emissions, to remove outlier bias from the results. This study looks for signs of decoupling among the three pairs, it finds that there may be relative decoupling between Energy, GDP and Emissions, GDP, but there is an urgent need for High and Upper-middle income group to move towards decarbonisation and energy efficiency respectively to decouple their emissions from energy consumption. The study also finds an inverted-U shaped pattern between the indicators and income groups but finds the downwards slope of the inverted-U curve only for very high values of GDP (10 times the average GDP of the three lower income groups). The last result is with respect to the need for United States to take urgent and immediate mitigation action considering it shows ‘outlier’ like characteristics in the high income group.
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